Concentrated apple juice stocks in China are in an emergency and prices may rise again

At present, the inventory of concentrated apple juice in China is nearly exhausted. Since the fall of last year, China's apple market has signaled that Apple has cut production and prices of raw materials have skyrocketed. But strangely, it seems that European customers did not panic rush to inventory. At the same time, the United States and Russia have quietly begun to sell their goods. The export of concentrated apple juice in China has apparently rebounded in recent months.

According to reports, the sales of concentrated apple juice in China rebounded sharply in February and even returned to the level of the past three years. In the first two months of 2011, the export of concentrated apple juice in China increased by about 40% compared with the same period of last year. Although shipments to the Netherlands and Germany also rose rapidly, Russia and the United States were the largest buyers of apple juice concentrate in China.

Last season, the output of concentrated apple juice in China was about 550,000 tons. The previous quarter's output was 645,000 tons plus 250,000 tons carried over in 2008/09. There were 1.44 million tons of output in the past two years, of which 1.17 million tons were exported.

According to the analysis of FOODNEWS, from September 2010 to February 2011, China exported 423,000 tons of apple juice concentrate. It is believed that the output from the previous quarter to the 2010/11 season was very low, probably below 100,000 tons. In March-March 2010, China exported 128,000 tons of apple juice concentrate. It is expected that shipments during the same period this year will not fall below this figure. Taking into account this year's trade trend, shipments may be as much as 30% higher and the goods under the contract have already been issued, but even so, this figure means that China may still have less than 100,000 tons of concentrated apple juice. Goods, this does not consider China's domestic consumption. It is expected that the stock of concentrated apple juice in China will not exceed 80,000 tons or possibly less.

Some sources pointed out that by 2011/12 season, China's apple juice concentrate may not have a balance in the previous quarter.

According to the recent meeting of the China Juice Chamber of Commerce held in Xi'an, China's concentrated apple juice stocks are about 60,000 tons. It is calculated that by the end of April, concentrated apple juice may be completely sold out.

According to industry insiders, “At present, global market demand is low, and all of the customers' concentrated apple juice is now purchased. Although in 1/2 months, they may have new purchase needs.”

At present, the export volume of concentrated apple juice in China is still very large and may be exhausted before the start of the new crop season. According to recent reports, there are still a large number of apple stocks in Shandong and other places, but the fresh fruit market price is at a relatively high level.

Interestingly, a few weeks ago some factories did purchase apple from the cold storage, but due to too little supply of raw materials and high prices, they eventually had to stop production.

From the statistics of the customs, the import of fresh apples in China has increased. It is speculated that some processors have started to use the idea of ​​processing imported fruits, but the quantity of imported fruits is after all limited.

In any case, the concentrated apple juice in China is indeed facing a situation of “green and yellow”. It is impossible for other suppliers of concentrated apple juice such as Iran, Turkey, Ukraine, and Poland to fill the gap in this period. The price of concentrated apple juice stocks in the previous quarter soared. At present, China's concentrated apple juice FOB quoted at about 2200-2300 US dollars / ton. However, according to Foodnews' forecast, with the arrival of the summer, if the Nordic buyers suddenly exert power, prices may increase by another US$200/ton.